Mercurial > thoughts
view org/man-years.org @ 2:c29b950c8729
first draft of man-hours is complete
author | Robert McIntyre <rlm@mit.edu> |
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date | Thu, 20 Oct 2011 07:22:13 -0700 |
parents | bfd876105ebd |
children | 44f31e2126fa |
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1 #+title: A Universe of Human Experience2 #+author: Robert McIntyre3 #+email: rlm@mit.edu4 #+description: How many man-years are in a year?5 #+keywords: man-year man-month man-hour universe human experience philosophy6 #+setupfile: ../../aurellem/org/setup.org7 #+include: ../../aurellem/org/level-0.org8 #+babel: :results output :exports both10 * What is a Man-Hour12 A [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-hour][/Man-Hour/]] is a term from the field of Management. It is one hour13 of work by one person for a certain task.15 For example, if I have a nine-to-five programming job at Initrode, but16 I slack off most of the time and only /actually/ work from17 10:00-11:00, then I only put in one man-hour of work a day.19 If my task is simply existing, then I put in 24 man-hours of work20 every day.23 * Experience25 I've often wondered what it would feel like to have more than one26 body, and to experience the same day from different perspectives.28 For example, there are around twenty different majors available at29 MIT. If you had ten different bodies, and each of them double-majored30 in different subjects, then in only four short years you would31 graduate with a degree in every field MIT has to offer. You would have32 experienced forty man-years of college in the process.34 How many man-years does the entire MIT class experience every year?35 [[http://web.mit.edu/fnl/volume/192/century.html][There were around]] $4585$ undergraduates at MIT in the fall of 1982.37 $4585$ students $\times$ $1$ year $=$ $4585$ man-years.39 One person could help lay the first blocks of [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pyramid_of_Giza][great Pharaoh Khufu's40 tomb]] and live to see [[http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/][Burj Khalifa]] and they would accrue the same41 amount of experience as the MIT class of '82 did in one year.44 * Forever in a Day46 How many man-years does everyone experience in a day? There are almost47 7 billion people around today, according to [[http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html][www.census.gov]].49 #+begin_src clojure50 (ns lifespan)51 (use '[clojure.contrib [pprint :only [cl-format]]])53 (cl-format *out* "Man-years per day: \n ~R"54 (* 6969492979 ;; people on Earth55 (/ 1 365) ;; years-per-day56 ))57 #+end_src59 #+results:60 : Man-years per day:61 : nineteen million, ninety-four thousand, five hundred one63 Together, we experience almost 20 million years every day!65 A week in the lives of the people of Earth is enough to reach back to66 the age of the dinosaurs.69 * The Infinite Stories of Humanity71 How many man-years is the sum total of human experience? That is, how72 many man-years has every human who has ever lived experienced?74 Using a very rough calculation involving the table from [[http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx][here]] and the75 average human lifespans through the ages found [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy][here]], I get the76 following:78 #+begin_src clojure79 (in-ns 'lifespan)80 (use '[clojure.contrib [def :only [defvar]]])82 (defvar83 time-periods84 [:start-8000BC85 :8000BC-186 :1-120087 :1200-165088 :1650-175089 :1750-185090 :1850-190091 :1900-195092 :1950-199593 :1995-2011]94 "The time periods under question.95 'start' here is taken to be 50,000BC")97 (defvar births98 (zipmap99 time-periods100 [ 1137789769 ;; \101 46025332354 ;; |102 26591343000 ;; |103 12782002453 ;; |104 3171931513 ;; | -- from the video at:105 4046240009 ;; | http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/106 2900237856 ;; | HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx107 3390198215 ;; |108 5427305000 ;; |109 2130327622]);; /110 "number of people who existed in the given time periods")112 ;; Confirm that the sum of people agrees with that in the video.113 (assert (= 107602707791 (reduce + (vals births))))115 (defvar lifespans116 (zipmap117 time-periods118 [33 ;; start-8000BC \119 22 ;; 8000BC-1 | -- from:120 30 ;; 1-1200 | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/121 32 ;; 1200-1650 / Life_expectancy122 35 ;; 1650-1750 \123 35 ;; 1750-1850 |-- from:124 45 ;; 1850-1900 | http://www.deathreference.com/125 66 ;; 1900-1950 | Ke-Ma/Life-Expectancy.html126 66 ;; 1950-1995 /127 70 ;; 1995-2011-------> form:128 ;; http://www.prb.org/DataFinder/Topic/129 ;; Rankings.aspx?ind=6&loc=241130 ])131 "lifespans in years from birth for the various time periods")135 ;; multiply each time-period's total number of people136 ;; by those people's average lifespan in years to get137 ;; the total number of man-years experienced during138 ;; that period, then add them together.140 (dorun141 (map println142 (clojure.contrib.string/split143 #","144 (cl-format nil "years of human experience: \n ~R years"145 (reduce +146 (map *147 (map births time-periods)148 (map lifespans time-periods)))))))150 #+end_src152 #+results:153 : years of human experience:154 : three trillion155 : three hundred seventy-one billion156 : ninety-three million157 : five hundred ninety-five thousand158 : one hundred eighty-one years162 Humans have already collectively lived far longer than the age of the163 universe.