view org/man-years.org @ 3:44f31e2126fa

cleanup
author Robert McIntyre <rlm@mit.edu>
date Thu, 20 Oct 2011 07:35:52 -0700
parents c29b950c8729
children 6842199d5e26
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1 #+title: A Universe of Human Experience
2 #+author: Robert McIntyre
3 #+email: rlm@mit.edu
4 #+description: How many man-years are in a year?
5 #+keywords: man-year man-month man-hour universe human experience philosophy
6 #+setupfile: ../../aurellem/org/setup.org
7 #+include: ../../aurellem/org/level-0.org
8 #+babel: :results output :exports both
10 * What is a Man-Hour?
12 A [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-hour][/Man-Hour/]] is a term from the field of Management. It is one hour
13 of work by one person for a certain task.
15 For example, if I have a nine-to-five programming job at Initrode, but
16 I slack off most of the time and only /actually/ work from
17 10:00-11:00, then I only put in one man-hour of work a day.
19 If my task is simply existing, then I put in 24 man-hours of work
20 every day.
23 * Experience
25 I've often wondered what it would feel like to have more than one
26 body, and to experience the same day from different perspectives.
28 For example, there are around twenty different majors available at
29 MIT. If you had ten different bodies, and each of them double-majored
30 in different subjects, then in only four short years you would
31 graduate with a degree in every field MIT has to offer. You would have
32 experienced forty man-years of college in the process.
34 How many man-years does the entire MIT class experience every year?
35 [[http://web.mit.edu/fnl/volume/192/century.html][There were around]] $4585$ undergraduates at MIT in the fall of 1982.
37 $4585$ students $\times$ $1$ year $=$ $4585$ man-years.
39 One person could help lay the first blocks of [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pyramid_of_Giza][great Pharaoh Khufu's
40 tomb]] and live to see [[http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/][Burj Khalifa]] and they would accrue the same
41 amount of experience as the MIT class of '82 did in one year.
44 * Forever in a Day
46 How many man-years does everyone experience in a day? There are almost
47 7 billion people around today, according to [[http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html][www.census.gov]].
49 #+begin_src clojure
50 (ns lifespan)
51 (use '[clojure.contrib [pprint :only [cl-format]]])
53 (cl-format *out* "Man-years per day: \n ~R"
54 (* 6969492979 ;; people on Earth
55 (/ 1 365) ;; years-per-day
56 ))
57 #+end_src
59 #+results:
60 : Man-years per day:
61 : nineteen million, ninety-four thousand, five hundred one
63 Together, we experience almost 20 million years every day!
65 A week in the lives of the people of Earth is enough to reach back to
66 the age of the dinosaurs.
69 * The Infinite Stories of Humanity
71 How many man-years is the sum total of human experience? That is, how
72 many man-years has every human who has ever lived experienced?
74 Using a very rough calculation involving the table from [[http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx][here]] and the
75 average human lifespans through the ages found [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy][here]], I get the
76 following:
78 #+begin_src clojure
79 (in-ns 'lifespan)
80 (use '[clojure.contrib [def :only [defvar]]])
82 (defvar
83 time-periods
84 [:start-8000BC
85 :8000BC-1
86 :1-1200
87 :1200-1650
88 :1650-1750
89 :1750-1850
90 :1850-1900
91 :1900-1950
92 :1950-1995
93 :1995-2011]
94 "The time periods under question.
95 'start' here is taken to be 50,000BC")
97 (defvar births
98 (zipmap
99 time-periods
100 [ 1137789769 ;; \
101 46025332354 ;; |
102 26591343000 ;; |
103 12782002453 ;; |
104 3171931513 ;; | -- from the video at:
105 4046240009 ;; | http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/
106 2900237856 ;; | HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx
107 3390198215 ;; |
108 5427305000 ;; |
109 2130327622]);; /
110 "number of people who existed in the given time periods")
112 ;; Confirm that the sum of people agrees with that in the video.
113 (assert (= 107602707791 (reduce + (vals births))))
115 (defvar lifespans
116 (zipmap
117 time-periods
118 [33 ;; start-8000BC \
119 22 ;; 8000BC-1 | -- from:
120 30 ;; 1-1200 | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
121 32 ;; 1200-1650 / Life_expectancy
122 35 ;; 1650-1750 \
123 35 ;; 1750-1850 |-- from:
124 45 ;; 1850-1900 | http://www.deathreference.com/
125 66 ;; 1900-1950 | Ke-Ma/Life-Expectancy.html
126 66 ;; 1950-1995 /
127 70 ;; 1995-2011-------> form:
128 ;; http://www.prb.org/DataFinder/Topic/
129 ;; Rankings.aspx?ind=6&loc=241
130 ])
131 "lifespans in years from birth for the various time periods")
137 ;; This section is just here to make the result look pretty.
138 (dorun
139 (map println
140 (clojure.contrib.string/split
141 #","
142 (cl-format
143 nil "years of human experience: \n ~R years"
144 ;; Multiply each time-period's total number of people
145 ;; by those people's average lifespan in years to get
146 ;; the total number of man-years experienced during
147 ;; that period, then add them together.
148 (reduce +
149 (map *
150 (map births time-periods)
151 (map lifespans time-periods)))))))
153 #+end_src
155 #+results:
156 : years of human experience:
157 : three trillion
158 : three hundred seventy-one billion
159 : ninety-three million
160 : five hundred ninety-five thousand
161 : one hundred eighty-one years
165 Humans have already collectively lived far longer than the age of the
166 universe.